The most dangerous assumption in construction today is that current prices reflect future costs.

They don't.

Diesel prices have surged following disruptions to global oil supply routes. While the immediate impact has been felt through transport, plant and earthworks, the bigger concern is what comes next.

History shows there is often a lag between fuel price increases and the full impact on construction materials. Concrete, steel, plastics, asphalt and freight costs typically take time to work their way through the supply chain.

We're already seeing early warning signs. Suppliers are introducing surcharges, manufacturers are announcing price increases, and contractors are facing growing pressure on margins and cashflow. Yet much of the downstream impact is still to arrive.

For brokers, this matters because insurance is based on future replacement costs, not historical ones. A rebuild value that looked reasonable six or twelve months ago may no longer reflect what it would cost to rebuild after a major loss.

For developers and project owners, the challenge is similar. Budgets, contingencies and fixed-price contracts established before these increases emerged may no longer provide the protection, they once did.

The risk is not today's prices.

The risk is assuming today's prices will still apply tomorrow.

Because cost shocks don't create problems overnight.

They expose problems that were already there.